Is US-Mexico Cross-Border Trade Peaking?
- John Doe
- US Cross-Border Trade
- August 22, 2025
On July 31, 2025, the Wall Street Journal (“WSJ”) quoted Jens H. Lund, DSV’s CEO, saying “the growth has gone out of it” in reference to US-Mexico cross-border trade. Lund cited uncertainity on tariffs as the cause for a slowdown in trade along the border. The WSJ article further explained that DSV is “paus[ing] a planned cross-border trucking expansion and slowing other investments pending more clarity on U.S. trade policy with Mexico”.
Politics aside, it’s fair to say that U.S. presidental election in November 2024 made the uncertainity over U.S. trade policy with Mexico definite. Two datasets - independent of each other - suggest the global supply chains operating in Mexico guaged the uncertainity precisely.
The first dataset shows southbound truck crossings at Laredo peaking in October 2024 just days before the election in November 2024. The second dataset shows northbound truck crossings peaking in October 2023 almost exactly a year for the election.
Truck crossings in both directions - northbound and southbound - at Laredo have trended down since their peaks.
Two Sources of Truck Crossing Data: Laredo World Trade Bridge’s Toll Collection and US Customs/BTS’ Border Entry
U.S. Customs does not collect data on southbound truck crossings into Mexico. The federal government also does not own or operate international bridges on the Texas southern border. Municipalities in Texas own and operate the bridges. The City of Laredo operates the bridge with the most truck crossings: Bridge IV, aka the World Trade Bridge. The City of Laredo publishes monthly truck crossing counts and toll collections.
U.S. Customs does collect data on northbound truck crossings. The U.S. Department of Transportation, through the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (“BTS”), publishes northbound truck crossings.
We converted the counts for monthly truck crossing into average daily figures for each month.
Findings in the Laredo Toll Collection Data
From January 2010 to April 2024, southbound truck daily crossings grew at a 7% CAGR, from 3,379 to 7,850. April 2024 was the peak month. For the 15 months from April 2024 to July 2025, daily truck crossings declined at a -5.3% CAGR, from 7,850 to 7,328.
Figure 1: Southbound truck crossings at the Laredo World Trade Bridge grew steadily for over a decade, peaking at 7,849 average daily crossings in April 2024. Since then, volumes have declined, with the 12-month moving average falling by July 2025.
Findings in the BTS Northbound Border Crossing Data
From January 2010 to October 2023, northbound truck daily crossings grew at a 7% CAGR, from 2,713 to 7,077. Northbound truck crossings peaked in October 2023. For the 13 months from October 2023 to April 2025, daily truck crossings declined at a -6.4% CAGR, from 7,077 to 6,408.
Figure 2: Northbound truck crossings through the U.S. Customs district of Laredo peaked in October 2023 before beginning a decline. The 12-month moving average fell through April 2025, marking a reversal after more than a decade of steady growth.
We’ll publishing the Laredo Toll Collection and BTS Northbound Border Crossing datasets as a regular series.
